ANALYSIS: Are Nigerians Better Off Under Buhari’s Government? On the trail of the much-discussed interview with the President – Africa Check | Vette Leader

Pipeline vandalism and organized crime

In March the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission estimated that the country had lost $7.72 million per day for oil theft from January 2021 to February 2022.

Richard Kennedy, the managing director of Chevron Nigeria, said oil theft in Nigeria has become organized crime.

Fasua told Africa Check: “Pipeline vandalism means that if an oil field pumps 5,000 barrels of crude oil through the pipelines, only 3,000 will arrive at the other end. Any onshore, offshore or marginal oil field transports crude oil through the pipelines.”

The economist said international oil companies’ investment and asset sales have also been impacted by Nigeria’s hostile business environment, inconsistent government policies and pressure to increase investment in green energy.

“Nigeria used to have joint venture contracts in place with these companies for crude oil exploration, but that has evolved into production-sharing contracts because the country can’t keep its end of the bargain and we may still owe those companies some money,” he said.

“Nigeria’s production costs for a barrel of crude oil sometimes reach as high as US$25, while other countries are drilling at much lower costs. All of this ultimately impacts production.”

6. Misery Index

The business day article rates Nigeria’s poverty index at 38.7% in 2015 and 73.84% in 2022. But it does not specify the source of the data or the methodology used.

The misery index was created by Arthur Okun, a US economist, to give a snapshot of the health of an economy. The index is calculated by adding the inflation and unemployment rate.

There are other versions of the index. One of the most recent is Hanke’s Misery Index, developed by Steve Hankeprofessor on John Hopkins University in the USA.

In an interview in November 2021, Hanke said said other indices such as bank lending rates and GDP per capita should also be considered.

The Hanke misery index is calculated through Subtract the annual percentage change in real GDP per capita from the sum of unemployment, inflation and bank lending rates at year-end.

According to Okun’s method, Nigeria’s misery index was 17.2% in the second quarter of 2015 and rose to 51.01% by 2022.

Hanke’s poverty index did not calculate a rate for Nigeria in 2015 because “only countries with up-to-date data” were taken into consideration. In 2022, Nigeria was ranked 11th poorest out of 156 countries with a misery index of 59.4.

An inaccurate measure?

“The misery index can affect investor sentiment. Prices are higher due to falling purchasing power and there are no jobs,” Aja told Africa Check.

“Foreign investors are looking for markets to sell their brands, and if investors can’t trade products due to high inflation, they won’t come.”

But some consider the index to be an inaccurate metric. Other to say that it may give a general sense of economic conditions, but is missing important information about it current condition of the market. identified others blind spots consumer experiences and labor market participation.

7. Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria

According to the statistics office, they exist three types of capital inflows into Nigeria: foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investment and “other” investment.

NBS data put the total value of foreign direct investment at the end of the second quarter by 2015, when Buhari took office, at $211 million. It was 1.44 billion for the whole year.

But the World Bank are a much higher figure of $3.06 billion in 2015, the exact amount in the business day article. World Bank data sources include the IMF Balance of Payments Database, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, and official national sources.

In the first quarter of 2022, the NBS reported an FDI inflow of US$154.97 million and for the full year 2021, $698.78 million. This is the latest available data from the Bureau of Statistics.

But the business day article puts FDI flow to Nigeria at US$669 million in 2022.

“Hostile and strangling business environment”

Hassan Oaikhenan is Professor of International Economics at the University of Benin in the Nigerian state of Edo. He told Africa Check that companies find the country’s operating environment hostile.

He noted that foreign direct investment fell under Buhari. “There are a few factors that can be blamed for the decline in foreign investment inflows. The Covid pandemic is one of the recent events responsible for this.”

“From my point of view, I would say that foreign direct investment does not flow into economies that have a hostile and constricting business environment; it flows into economies with favorable framework conditions.

“Nigeria is one of the leading countries in the global terrorism index. It also did poorly in the Fragile States Index.”

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